03 December 2015

R to SAS bait and switch?

How would you handle a scenario where the company may have altered the truth about a job?

Question details

"So here is a scenario. I accepted a job two months ago as an analyst where I'd be working primarily with two programming languages. Of the two, one I'm proficient in (R) and the other was brand new to me (SAS). I was going to be their in-house R expert. However, soon after starting, they said that I needed to focus just on SAS. 

Learning SAS isn't that hard and I can spend my evenings using R, however, that is not the arrangement that we agreed on. Therefore, I'm a little frustrated by this and considering whether I should jump ship. What would you do? 

For what it's worth, I've had a couple companies who I've talked with in the past reconnect with me and one even offered me a data scientist role. So I have something lined up if I want to jump ship." 

My answer

21 October 2015

Edward Snowden, Facebook and maybe Quora but probably not

My answer to What does Edward Snowden think of Quora? on Quora. Edward Snowden might not have even heard of Quora! Most people haven't. It would be much more unlikely to not have heard of Facebook. 

Snowden's comment about Facebook doesn't reflect in any way on whether he has an opinion of Quora, or if he did, whether his opinion about Facebook would have any relevancy to what he thought of Quora. Facebook and Quora have founders in common, but little else. 

Facebook is a free service like Quora, but Facebook makes extensive use of advertising in order to generate revenue. Facebook also generates revenue through other means, using its repository of user-contributed data. In contrast, Quora does not display any (overtly) user-targeted advertising. Facebook common equity is publicly traded on listed stock exchanges following its IPO in 2012. 

Quora is a closely-held private company, with unknown revenue sources and no transparency policy. Given widespread knowledge of Facebook's business model, past privacy controversies covered in the press and its relative transparency as a public company, I am surprised that Snowden would expect Facebook to make any sort of "commitment to the user". Facebook users pay nothing to use Facebook. Instead, and this is a cliche by now yet accurate, users ARE Facebook's product! Edward Snowden said:
They need to decide who they work for: the government or the people who use their services.
Users are not Facebook's customers. Facebook works for the people and organizations who pay for its services, those who use its services free of charge. Does Facebook work for one or more governments in some capacity? 

The answer is probably yes, although payment might be quid pro quo as well as cash. Facebook primarily works for the corporations and businesses that pay for user-targeted advertising on Facebook's platform. Edward Snowden, much like Glenn Greenwald, rarely portrays corporate invasion of privacy as a concern, preferring to focus on government instead.

03 October 2015

Buy and hold

If you were allowed only to buy only 1 stock + put options for downside protection in that stock and be forced to hold it for at least 1 year from now what stock would you consider buying to achieve the best returns? 

I would never set up a trade like that with any stock. Being long put options for an entire year is crazy. In order to realize any positive return, you would need to make a profit on the stock that was greater than the premium you paid for the put option, plus any commissions and fees you incurred. US stock options expiry is monthly, so you would also have the inconvenience of remembering to roll the put option each time. 

Instead of buying put options as insurance, I would sell call options, with appropriately chosen strikes depending on the stock price each month. That is risky too, with negative upside exposure. 

If your intent is to buy and hold one stock, for an entire year, you are making a decision based on something that is driven by fundamentals of the company. Stay away from options. Buy a small cap company, of the sort that Mario Gabelli picks for his small cap growth fund (GABSX), see Mario Gabelli makes big bucks bucking trends

If you don't like that, do your research and find a company with publicly traded stock that is NOT on the Pink Sheets and has a high likelihood of growth or a massive one-time dividend (I'm thinking of Apple, just as an example) due to accounting or regulatory circumstances.

27 September 2015

Is the present European Refugee Crisis comparable to flight from the Axis during WWII?

How does the present response to the European Refugee Crisis compare to the response to those fleeing Axis regimes in WWII? The comparison is of two very different situations. Think in terms of who was fleeing what.
 

Axis regimes during World War 2

Who: Well-educated, poor, middle and upper class Europeans who were fluent in one or more western languages; many were highly skilled professionals, academics or tradesmen. Many were wealthy.[1] Most were Jewish or Roman Catholic. Demographically, they were men, women, children and the elderly. 

What: Flight from the most highly developed nation in the world, Germany, then radiating outward to include flight from Italy, France, The Netherlands, Scandinavia, Poland and Eastern Europe to anywhere that would take them. Refugees gladly adopted the customs and social norms of those few countries that gave safe harbor.

02 August 2015

Are user groups dead?

User groups are not dead... yet.

Be aware that user group can refer to either online or IRL (in real life) gatherings. Erica Friedman is not optimistic about Internet user groups:

My gut feeling is that user groups are mostly old technology (Usenet, Forums) and the only people on them are the deeply dedicated/sticking to the old school ways, while the interesting conversations have moved off into newer forms of communication.

They will die out when the last Listserv server or Usenet group dies, but in the meantime they will linger on in corners of the Internet as they have for many years now.

Those are online forums, mostly consisting of Usenet and Yahoo Groups. Both Usenet and Yahoo Groups continue to exist, if not exactly thrive. Usenet user groups have a characteristic tone and format which has not changed since inception. For example, I was just reading this thread, A moderated forum: inconsistent with my Liberal principles from rec.music.classical.recordings (now hosted by Google Groups),
So you think I am those other guys. What, is your brain made of chav?
--Borscht Belt
Incongruous, isn't it? Very typical too!

19 July 2015

reddit community after Ellen Pao

Does Ellen Pao's departure from reddit set a precedent that gives the reddit community too much power over the company?
 
No, it does not set a precedent that gives the reddit community too much power over the company. First, there is an implicit assumption in this question, that it was the reddit community alone who caused Ellen Pao's departure. That hasn't been established, and it is probably unknowable, other than through rumors. See Did Ellen Pao get fired from reddit? quoting Sam Altman saying that it was mutually agreed upon for her to depart.

How does the public react when political figures state that millions of illegals workers do not compete with Americans for jobs in the US?

Do people get mad when political figures tell them that a major economic trend, like millions of illegal workers competing for jobs, is not happening? 

People do not have a chance to get angry because the mainstream media refuses to report what entities such as the Federal Reserve publish, regarding the negative effects of immigration on youth employment in the United States.
 
This is the abstract of a 2012 research paper by a Federal Reserve economist, "The Impact of Low-Skilled Immigration on the Youth Labor Market" jstor.org/stable/10.1086/662073
The employment to population rate of high school–aged youth has fallen by about 20 percentage points since the late 1980s. One potential explanation is increased competition from substitutable labor, such as immigrants. I demonstrate that the increase in the population of less educated immigrants has had a considerably more negative effect on employment outcomes for native youth than for native adults. At least two factors are at work: there is greater overlap between the jobs that youth and less educated adult immigrants traditionally do, and youth labor supply appears more responsive to immigration-induced wage changes.
The actual Federal Reserve publication was released the year prior, see Smith, Christopher L. 2011. “Polarization, Immigration, Education: What’s Behind the Dramatic Decline in Youth Employment?” Federal Reserve Board of Governors Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-41.

05 July 2015

Should I work for an exotic tech startup company?

Read Ellie Kesselman's answer to Is it worth it to work for companies that provide in-flight Wi-Fi like Gogo, OnAir, Row44, etc.? on Quora

You don't need to worry about it until you graduate with your degree. It would be a good idea to intern for one of the inflight Wi-Fi companies while you are still in school, as that should help you make a more informed decision.

If you are married and especially, if you are married and have children, you should work for an established company right out of school, as the medical benefits, compensation and workplace stability will be better. Even if you are not married with children, you should be careful about getting your first job at a small, young company whose primary business could be derailed by regulatory issues. 

It is possible that one or more of these companies developing in-flight Wi-Fi services could be bought out by Juniper, Cisco, or even a major airline.  The scenario of the airline purchase is interesting and has precedents, e.g. American Airlines purchased SABRE. Even if such an event should occur, I don't know if it would have any benefit to you as employee rather than a founder/equity owner.

Another reason to work for Juniper or Cisco for a few years, when you first graduate, is that it will increase your credibility and perceived value to future employers. Transitioning from a big company that is well-established in its industry to a start-up is easier to do than vice-versa. My first job out of school was at an innovative small company; I left after two years to work for IBM. I wish I could have done it the other way around.

03 July 2015

Why are dropouts like Elon Musk and Steve Jobs more successful than college graduates?

Why are dropouts like Elon Musk and Steve Jobs more successful than college graduates? How do they get the platform to rise?

You didn't mention Bill Gates, but he is often cited as an example of a successful college dropout. That is more myth than fact. This is what Bill Gates said about his college education at Harvard:
It is strange to call me a college drop out in all but the most literal sense. I went for three years and took enough courses to graduate...So I am kind of a failure as a drop out.

One theory that I've read about, especially in the context of the electronic payments industry, is that college drop outs have only two choices: get a low-paying job, or risk the realities of forming a new business. Necessity forces them into entrepreneurship.

01 July 2015

Is the EU's Schengen treaty unique?

Yes, there are other Schengen-type treaties around the world? Some Schengen-like treaties in the western hemisphere.

North America 


At various times, the United States and Canada have enjoyed a functional Schengen treaty arrangement, even though it was not formalized. US citizens did not require a passport or visa, nor pay any fee to travel to or from Canada. The same was true for Canadian citizens traveling to the US. This protocol was observed for automobile and passenger rail transit, although I am uncertain about air travel.
 
I was an enthusiastic novice international traveler in the 1990's. I was eager to get as many stamps in my passport, from as many different countries as possible. On a drive from Seattle to Vancouver, I had my passport with me, although it wasn't necessary. The Canadian immigration control officer was amused at my request for a stamp of entry, and eventually dug one out.

13 June 2015

Is human head transplant research unethical?

What are the ethical arguments against research in head transplants being carried out by Dr. Xiaoping Ren in China?
 
There are ethical considerations based on the objections of animal rights activists. I don't discount them, but I'm not well-versed in their terminology.

The ethical considerations as extended to humans are most obvious to me. Even if such a thing as a head transplant were possible, which is extremely unlikely given the complexity of reattaching a severed spinal cord, what are the criteria for body donors?
 
Here is the ethically challenging scenario: You have two people, 
  • one with a paralyzed body but a healthy head 
  • the other with a healthy body and a healthy head. 

03 June 2015

How can a knowledge economy work in practice?

Read Ellie Kesselman's answer to How can a knowledge economy work in practice, with very few non-technical, lower-skilled niches to fill for the workers? on Quora

Is a 1500 microsecond clock cycle low enough latency to do high frequency trading?

Read Ellie Kesselman's answer to On a modern high-end machine, how many clock cycles is 1500 microseconds? on Quora

Describe a little-known and remarkable fact about the CIA

The CIA fostered and promoted American Abstract Expressionist painting around the world for about 30 years, and was remarkably successful in doing so.[1] 

The decision to include culture and art was made when the CIA was founded in 1947.  In 1950, the International Organisations Division (IOD) of the CIA was set up. It subsidized the animated version of George Orwell's Animal Farm, sponsored American jazz artists, many opera recitals and the Boston Symphony Orchestra's international touring program.

Rebutting the idea of America as a cultural desert

During the 1950s, Senator Joe McCarthy's hysterical denunciations of the avant-garde and unorthodox were deeply embarrassing. They discredited the idea that America was a sophisticated, culturally rich democracy.

Why Abstract Expressionism?

Jackson Pollock was one of the artists whose work the CIA helped to promote. Summertime Number 9A via Art Crimes on Flickr
It was recognized that Abstract Expressionism was the kind of art that made Socialist Realism look even more stylized and more rigid and confined than it was... Moscow in those days was very vicious in its denunciation of any kind of non-conformity to its own very rigid patterns.[2]
One could accurately reason that anything the USSR criticized that much and that heavily was worth supporting.

24 May 2015

Would modern IBM mainframes be better for the environment than rack servers in data centers?

Read Ellie Kesselman's answer to Would the use of modern mainframes like the IBM z13 be better for the environment than PC-style rack mounted servers in data centers? on Quora

Quora monetization strategy and the Surveillance State?

Read Ellie Kesselman's answer to How deeply connected is Quora to our government's intelligence agencies? on Quora

I'm going to answer this question seriously, even though it makes me laugh a little.  

The context topic is "Quora Business Model and Monetization".  There would be no reason for Quora to have any connection with U.S. government intelligence agencies in order to sustain itself as a viable business, i.e. a going concern.  


In the somewhat implausible scenario that the U.S. government wanted to use Quora content or user data for national security purposes, or even law enforcement purposes as needed (e.g. for collecting evidence in the course of a criminal investigation), there would be no need to pay Quora. Quora is a U.S.-domiciled company, and it uses Amazon Web Services to store its data. Both Quora and AWS must comply with U.S. government requests for data.  If necessary, the U.S. government could compel Quora to cooperate by a wide variety of entirely legal means.[1]  It isn't a quid pro quo relationship.  That is to say, the following scenario would NOT be a monetization or business model for Quora:

NSA/CIA/FBI  Give us your user data and let us interact with your users as we see fit.
Quora  Okay! How much will you pay us?
NSA/CIA/FBI  We'll pay you $12 million dollars per year.
Quora  Sounds good.  Deposit a million dollars on the third Thursday of every month in Marc Bodnick's checking account.
NSA/CIA/FBI  Okay!
Quora  :)
NSA/CIA/FBI   :)

There are some other possibilities worth considering. The question doesn't actually specify "US government",only "our government",although the topic tags do explicitly mention NSA, DHS, FBI and CIA.


20 April 2015

What percentage of physicians have not yet transitioned to EMRs?

What percentage of physicians still use paper medical records instead of digital? Why haven't they switched?

My answer as of 2015


In 2008, 4% of U.S. physicians reported having an extensive, fully functional electronic-records system, and 13% reported having a basic system, according to the New England Journal of Medicine, see Common Examples of Healthcare IT Failure (Drexel University).

By May 2013, approximately 90% of health care facilities had implemented an electronic health record (EHR) system although only 56% of long-term care facilities had done so, see Long-term care facilities lag behind on EHR adoption.

As for physicians, CDC Releases Report on Physician EHR Adoption in 2014  indicated an EHR adoption rate of 78%. Here is some data about physicians' usage of digital records and technology via Survey shows EHR skepticism increasing among U.S. doctors published 15 April 2015.

The number of U.S. doctors who routinely use digital tools, such as secure email, for communicating with patients is 30% now versus 13% in 2012.

The five IT capabilities that U.S. doctors use the most are:

  • entering patient notes electronically (82%); 
  • prescribing drugs electronically (72%); 
  • receiving clinical results directly into a patient’s EMR (65%); 
  • using electronic administration tools (63%); 
  • sending e-order requests to labs (62%). 
I don't know the composition of the complementary data. It depends on the number of N/A or "didn't know" or "didn't respond to that question" versus "I use paper" responses.

A note about terminology


An EMR is an Electronic Medical Record. An EHR (Electronic Health Record) system consists of either EMRs or EHRs, i.e. they are used interchangeably. I don't often see "EMR systems". I'm unsure why "EHR systems" is the more common term.  Often, context is necessary to determine whether "EHR" refers to an EHR system or an EHR. 

Why don't physicians want to use digital records?



EHR’s disruption of normal work flow can have disastrous medical consequences, as in the Dallas Ebola case, which was an unusually visible example but quite common. 

Costs of IT failures

These are three of many instances.

Sutter Health reported that the EHR system they paid nearly $1 billion for crashed in late August 2013 for eight hours during a system upgrade. Several large hospitals had no access to ANY medical records for eight hours. Epic Problems or Epic Results

Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center reported huge losses, over $60 million, since its adoption of EHR. As a result, 950 jobs were cut and the hospital must reduce hours of service. Wake Forest’s Epic woes continue with slashed worker raises 

Antelope Valley Hospital in California shut down its emergency department for an entire day after the EHR and data system failed. The failed systems led to issues with properly dispensing medications, verifying physician orders, reviewing patient labs, MRIs and other diagnostic procedures, and led to an inability for clinicians to review patient records, according to hospital nurses. Additionally, the hospital did not have a backup plan in place. EHR failure closes California hospital Emergency Department, nurses ask for investigation

EHR security vulnerabilities


There are huge financial and even operational penalties associated with data breaches of PHI (personal health information). See Why Doctors Don't Like Electronic Health Records via MIT Technology Review.

Negative impact on patient care due to EHR design problems


Nowadays, medical notes consist of randomly pre-populated check box data lifted from multiple author sources and vomited into a nonsensical monstrosity of a run-on sentence. It’s almost impossible to figure out what the physician makes of the patient or what she is planning to do. Occasional “free text” boxes can provide clues, when the provider has bothered to clarify. 
One needs to be a medical detective to piece together an assessment and plan these days. It’s both embarrassing and tragic…if you believe that the purpose of medical notes is effective communication. The Medical Chart: Ground Zero For The Deterioration Of Patient Care
EMR Alert - Featuring radiologist note in illegible font color
More Unintended Consequences Of Digital Data: How An EMR Gave My Patient Syphilis
At one hospital, the process for discharging a patient requires that the physician type all the discharge summary information into the EMR and then read it into a dictation system so that it can be transcribed by a team in India (cheaper than US transcription service) and returned to the hospital in another part of the EMR. The physician then needs to go into the new document and remove all the typos and errant formatting so that it resembles their original discharge summary note. In one of my recent notes the Indian transcriptionist misheard my word for “hydrocephalus” and simply entered “syphilis” as the patient’s chief diagnosis.

Another hospital has an entire wing of its main building devoted to an IT team. I accidentally discovered their facility on my way to radiology. Situated in a dark room surrounded by enough flat panel monitors to put a national cable network to shame, about 40 young tech support engineers were furiously working to keep the EMR from crashing on a daily basis–an event which halts all order processing from the ER to the ICU. Ominous reports of the EMR’s instability were piped over the entire hospital PA system, warning staff when they could expect screen freezes and data entry blockages.