03 December 2015

R to SAS bait and switch?

How would you handle a scenario where the company may have altered the truth about a job?

Question details

"So here is a scenario. I accepted a job two months ago as an analyst where I'd be working primarily with two programming languages. Of the two, one I'm proficient in (R) and the other was brand new to me (SAS). I was going to be their in-house R expert. However, soon after starting, they said that I needed to focus just on SAS. 

Learning SAS isn't that hard and I can spend my evenings using R, however, that is not the arrangement that we agreed on. Therefore, I'm a little frustrated by this and considering whether I should jump ship. What would you do? 

For what it's worth, I've had a couple companies who I've talked with in the past reconnect with me and one even offered me a data scientist role. So I have something lined up if I want to jump ship." 

My answer

10 November 2015

Too much cheap money and distorted market valuations

As of November 2015, what does "Finally, too much cheap money lets companies operate with bad unit economics and cover up all sorts of internal problems" mean in the case of distorted valuations? How does this make a startup less robust in the future?"

Let me tell you all about it! 

Interest rates are being held at zero by the Federal Reserve, using quantitative easing, in order to protect the economy from recession. Unfortunately, this has been necessary since 2008, and the Federal Reserve is continuing to postpone raising rates, i.e. monetary normalization, although it is increasingly difficult to justify.

...the entire public market is likely to go down—perhaps substantially—when interest rates materially move up, though that may be a long time away.

The Federal Reserve intended to keep interest rates low, in order to encourage businesses to invest in R&D, new ventures or make capital expenditures for plants, property, and equipment. The logic is that with interest rates so low, there is a strong disincentive to accumulate cash reserves, for both businesses and investors. For reasons that aren't entirely clear, businesses have not taken advantage of the ultra-low interest rate environment (the cheap money in your question) for building durable wealth, but instead, have been doing things like stock buybacks.

This recovery has been one of the weakest in U.S. economic history, and cannot seem to get past stagnant wages and persistently high unemployment.

In a world of 0 percent interest rates, people become pretty focused on finding new sources for fixed income.

Investors are chasing yield, which only drives speculative markets higher. Speculative markets include the stock market as well as venture capital. There are fewer sources of return on investment, despite easy credit for businesses due to extravagantly accommodating monetary policy.

21 October 2015

Edward Snowden, Facebook, and maybe Quora

What does Edward Snowden think of Quora? Edward Snowden probably hasn't even heard of Quora! Most people haven't. It would be much more unlikely for him to not have heard of Facebook. 

Snowden's comment about Facebook doesn't reflect in any way on whether he has an opinion of Quora, or if he did, whether his opinion about Facebook would have any relevancy to what he thought of Quora. Facebook and Quora have founders (Adam D'Angelo) in common, but little else. Quora is a closely-held private company, with unknown revenue sources and no transparency policy.

Facebook is a free service like Quora, but Facebook makes extensive use of advertising in order to generate revenue. Facebook also generates revenue through other means, using its repository of user-contributed data. In contrast, Quora does not display any (overtly) user-targeted advertising. Facebook common equity is publicly traded on listed stock exchanges following its IPO in 2012. 

Given widespread knowledge of Facebook's business model, past privacy controversies covered in the press, and its relative transparency as a public company, I am surprised that Snowden would expect Facebook to make any sort of "commitment to the user". 

Facebook users pay nothing to use Facebook. Instead, and this is a cliche by now yet accurate, users ARE Facebook's product! Edward Snowden said this about Facebook:
They need to decide who they work for: the government or the people who use their services.
Users are not Facebook's customers. Facebook works for the businesses and organizations who pay for its services.


Does Facebook work for one or more governments in some capacity? 

Snowden suggests this in his comment. The answer is probably yes, although payment might be quid pro quo as well as cash. 

Facebook primarily works for the corporations and businesses that pay for user-targeted advertising on Facebook's platform. Edward Snowden, much like Glenn Greenwald, rarely portrays corporate invasion of privacy as a concern, preferring to focus on governments instead.

03 October 2015

Buy and hold and hold and hold

If you were allowed only to buy only 1 stock + put options for downside protection in that stock and be forced to hold it for at least 1 year from now what stock would you consider buying to achieve the best returns? 

I would never set up a trade like that with any stock. Being long put options for an entire year is crazy. In order to realize any positive return, you would need to make a profit on the stock that was greater than the premium you paid for the put option, plus any commissions and fees you incurred. US stock options expiry is monthly, so you would also have the inconvenience of remembering to roll over the put option, 12 times!

Instead of buying put options as insurance, I would buy stock and sell call options, with appropriately chosen strikes depending on the stock price each month. That must be followed very closely too, due to the potential negative upside exposure if neglected. 

If your intent is to buy and hold one stock, for an entire year, you are making a decision based on something that is driven by fundamentals of the company.  In that scenario, stay away from options. Buy a small cap company, of the sort that Mario Gabelli picks for his small cap growth fund (GABSX), see Mario Gabelli makes big bucks bucking trends

If you don't like that, do your research and find a company with publicly traded stock that is NOT on the Pink Sheets and is undervalued, or has a high likelihood of growth, or the expectation of a massive one-time dividend (I'm thinking of Apple, just as an example) due to accounting or regulatory circumstances.

27 September 2015

Is the present European Refugee Crisis comparable to flight from the Axis during WWII?

How does the present response to the European Refugee Crisis compare to the response to those fleeing Axis regimes in WWII? The comparison is of two very different situations. Think in terms of who was fleeing what.
 

Axis regimes during World War 2

Who: Well-educated, poor, middle and upper class Europeans who were fluent in one or more western languages; many were highly skilled professionals, academics or tradesmen. Many were wealthy.[1] Most were Jewish or Roman Catholic. Demographically, they were men, women, children and the elderly. 

What: Flight from the most highly developed nation in the world, Germany, then radiating outward to include flight from Italy, France, The Netherlands, Scandinavia, Poland and Eastern Europe to anywhere that would take them. Refugees gladly adopted the customs and social norms of those few countries that gave safe harbor.

02 August 2015

Are user groups dead?

User groups are not dead... yet.

Be aware that user group can refer to either online or IRL (in real life) gatherings. Erica Friedman is not optimistic about Internet user groups:

My gut feeling is that user groups are mostly old technology (Usenet, Forums) and the only people on them are the deeply dedicated/sticking to the old school ways, while the interesting conversations have moved off into newer forms of communication.

They will die out when the last Listserv server or Usenet group dies, but in the meantime they will linger on in corners of the Internet as they have for many years now.

Those are online forums, mostly consisting of Usenet and Yahoo Groups. Both Usenet and Yahoo Groups continue to exist, if not exactly thrive. Usenet user groups have a characteristic tone and format which has not changed since inception. For example, I was just reading this thread, A moderated forum: inconsistent with my Liberal principles from rec.music.classical.recordings (now hosted by Google Groups),
So you think I am those other guys. What, is your brain made of chav?
--Borscht Belt
Incongruous, isn't it? Very typical too!

19 July 2015

Do reddit users have too much power?

Does Ellen Pao's departure from reddit set a precedent that gives the reddit community too much power over the company?
 
No, it does not set a precedent that gives the reddit community too much power over the company. First, there is an implicit assumption in this question, that it was the reddit community alone who caused Ellen Pao's departure. That hasn't been established, and it is probably unknowable, other than through rumors. 

See Did Ellen Pao get fired from reddit? quoting Sam Altman saying that it was mutually agreed upon for her to depart.
According to Ellen Pao herself, she resigned. There was tremendous pressure for her to step down from the reddit userbase, including a petition that reached 200k+ signatures: Ellen K. Pao: Step down as CEO of Reddit Inc.

When I asked her directly if she was fired, Pao laughed and said, “Thanks for getting right to the point,” but again underscored that she resigned. Reddit board member and Y Combinator head Sam Altman answered more definitively about whether she was ousted: “No.”

How does the public react when political figures state that millions of illegals workers do not compete with Americans for jobs in the US?

Do people get mad when political figures tell them that a major economic trend, like millions of illegal workers competing for jobs, is not happening? 

People do not have a chance to get angry because the mainstream media refuses to report what entities such as the Federal Reserve publish, regarding the negative effects of immigration on youth employment in the United States.
 
This is the abstract of a 2012 research paper by a Federal Reserve economist, "The Impact of Low-Skilled Immigration on the Youth Labor Market" jstor.org/stable/10.1086/662073
The employment to population rate of high school–aged youth has fallen by about 20 percentage points since the late 1980s. One potential explanation is increased competition from substitutable labor, such as immigrants. I demonstrate that the increase in the population of less educated immigrants has had a considerably more negative effect on employment outcomes for native youth than for native adults. At least two factors are at work: there is greater overlap between the jobs that youth and less educated adult immigrants traditionally do, and youth labor supply appears more responsive to immigration-induced wage changes.
The actual Federal Reserve publication was released the year prior, see Smith, Christopher L. 2011. “Polarization, Immigration, Education: What’s Behind the Dramatic Decline in Youth Employment?” Federal Reserve Board of Governors Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-41.

05 July 2015

Should I work for an exotic tech startup company?

My answer to Is it worth it to work for companies that provide in-flight Wi-Fi like Gogo, OnAir, Row44, etc.?

You don't need to worry about it until you graduate with your degree. It would be a good idea to intern for one of the inflight Wi-Fi companies while you are still in school, as that should help you make a more informed decision.

If you are married and especially, if you are married and have children, you should work for an established company right out of school, as the medical benefits, compensation, and workplace stability will be better. Even if you are not married with children, you should be careful about getting your first job at a small, young company whose primary business could be derailed by regulatory issues.

It is possible that one or more of these companies developing in-flight Wi-Fi services could be bought out by Juniper, Cisco, or even a major airline.  The scenario of the airline purchase is interesting and has precedents, e.g. American Airlines purchased SABRE. Even if such an event should occur, I don't know if it would have any benefit to you as employee rather than a founder/equity owner.

Another reason to work for Juniper or Cisco for a few years, when you first graduate, is that it will increase your credibility and perceived value to future employers. Transitioning from a big company that is well-established in its industry to a start-up is easier to do than vice-versa. My first job out of school was at an innovative small company; I left after two years to work for IBM. I wish I could have done it the other way around.

03 July 2015

Why are dropouts like Elon Musk and Steve Jobs more successful than college graduates?

Why are dropouts like Elon Musk and Steve Jobs more successful than college graduates? How do they get the platform to rise?

You didn't mention Bill Gates, but he is often cited as an example of a successful college dropout. That is more myth than fact. This is what Bill Gates said about his college education at Harvard:
It is strange to call me a college drop out in all but the most literal sense. I went for three years and took enough courses to graduate...So I am kind of a failure as a drop out.

One theory that I've read about, especially in the context of the electronic payments industry, is that college drop outs have only two choices: get a low-paying job, or risk the realities of forming a new business. Necessity forces them into entrepreneurship.

01 July 2015

Is the EU's Schengen treaty unique?

Yes, there are other Schengen-type treaties around the world? Some Schengen-like treaties in the western hemisphere.

North America 


At various times, the United States and Canada have enjoyed a functional Schengen treaty arrangement, even though it was not formalized. US citizens did not require a passport or visa, nor pay any fee to travel to or from Canada. The same was true for Canadian citizens traveling to the US. This protocol was observed for automobile and passenger rail transit, although I am uncertain about air travel.
 
I was an enthusiastic novice international traveler in the 1990's. I was eager to get as many stamps in my passport, from as many different countries as possible. On a drive from Seattle to Vancouver, I had my passport with me, although it wasn't necessary. The Canadian immigration control officer was amused at my request for a stamp of entry, and eventually dug one out.

13 June 2015

Is human head transplant research unethical?

What are the ethical arguments against research in head transplants being carried out by Dr. Xiaoping Ren in China?
 
There are ethical considerations based on the objections of animal rights activists. I don't discount them, but I'm not well-versed in their terminology.

The ethical considerations as extended to humans are most obvious to me. Even if such a thing as a head transplant were possible, which is extremely unlikely given the complexity of reattaching a severed spinal cord, what are the criteria for body donors?
 
Here is the ethically challenging scenario: You have two people, 
  • one with a paralyzed body but a healthy head 
  • the other with a healthy body and a healthy head. 

03 June 2015

How can a knowledge economy work in practice?

How can a knowledge economy work in practice, with very few non-technical, lower-skilled niches for the workers?

A knowledge economy with very few non-technical lower skilled opportunities cannot work in practice. A knowledge economy is a service economy. The US is a knowledge economy now. It is not working so well.

Germany is still a manufacturing economy. It is not broken. Yes, there is the entire EU import-export drama which contributes to Germany's relatively greater prosperity; however, Germany did not outsource all its manufacturing and many of its highly-skilled worker positions (including software development and pharmaceuticals R&D) to developing nations, unlike the USA.

More education is not a panacea for economic growth. Here's a recent discussion of that, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/education-economic-growth-by-ricardo-hausmann-2015-05 although it makes incorrect observations about productivity being mostly driven by primary school and high school education. Worker productivity is not the issue at all. In fact, reputable studies indicate that worker productivity has never been so high.

Capitalism can work, but needlessly complicated tax laws allow the wealthiest individuals and corporations to stash trillions of dollars in offshore accounts. (Profits soar to previously unrecorded heights; a few CEOs reap unprecedented benefits as the middle class in much of the developed world erodes). It is becoming increasingly difficult to operate a small business other than basic services in the USA, due to inconsistently applied and burdensome rules and regulations.

Is a 1500 microsecond clock cycle low enough latency to do high frequency trading?

My answer to On a modern high-end machine, how many clock cycles is 1500 microseconds?

The article says that the BATS exchange gives preferred customers access to stock pricing data with 1 microsecond latency, whereas everyone else, i.e. those who don't pay a LOT extra, have delays of up to 1500 microseconds in receiving the same pricing data. There is an SEC requirement, Regulation NMS that states that everyone is supposed to have equal access to market information. (Under Reg NMS, which is incorporated into each exchange’s operating policies and subscriber agreements, exchanges are required to distribute information on “terms that are fair and reasonable” and that are “not unreasonably discriminatory.”)

Apparently, there is a lot that one can do if one has a 1500 microsecond (1.5 millisecond) advantage over the rest of the market, when it comes to high frequency trading (HFT), and perhaps with algorithmic trading in general.


Judge Forrest further explained that, in promulgating Regulation NMS, the SEC had interpreted federal securities law to require the exchanges to transmit data to processors at the same time that the exchanges submit this data to the preferred proprietary feeds. Judge Forrest highlighted an SEC statement during rulemaking that provided that exchanges are not required to “synchronize the delivery of its data to end-users.”
There are lots of good definitions of latency here, "Achieve Ultra-Low Latency for High-Frequency Trading Applications" https://www.cisco.com/c/dam/en/us/products/collateral/switches/nexus-3000-series-switches/white_paper_c11-716030.pdf [PDF] that you might find helpful. It describes the orders of magnitudes required for HFT from the server side and signal propagation/switching, both of which are measured in units of nanoseconds, not microseconds, and certainly not milliseconds.

Diving down into the comments


Anon   That's what I was attempting to point out is that 1.5 ms is not that long even on a high end machine. A single hash table look-up using a one of the fastest hashing algorithms is min. 12 clock cycles (proprietary algorithm) to even be able to know what happened in a trade would require at least 4 such lookups that is 48 clock cycles to just know what happened. The data communications likely eats up and other 20 or 30 clock cycles. Add in the time to record any decision (about an other 10 to 20 clock cycles) and we are now at a remainder of about anywhere from 2 clock cycles to 25 clock cycles. The OS would likely eat 5 or so of those so owe are left with at most 10 integer operations (2 to 3 floating point), assume no branching, assume fetch from RAM not from register. What on earth can be done in that amount time? .... so that latency there is not an issue and he judge is right to dismiss the case.... btw I personally think HFT should be banned.

Me   The issue in the Lanier v. BATS exchange is not the machine processing time as much as the delivery time, I think.

Adam Helps   Um, modern machines work in fractions of nanoseconds, not microseconds, and you can assume that someone who cares about HFT is going to be obsessive about using those clock cycles optimally.

A 4 GHz machine (which is high end consumer grade hardware these days) executes 4 billion clock cycles per second. In one microsecond, that's 4,000 instructions. In 1500 microseconds, that's 6,000,000 instructions.

True, at this scale, memory fetches take 50 full clock ticks, but someone doing HFT is going to make sure they hit the cache almost every time. And I think you can do quite a lot of thinking in 6,000,000 instructions.

Oh, and I completely agree that HFT is a worthless parasite on our markets, is providing virtually no value, and we'd be better off banning it. Some truly brilliant people have devoted a lot of time and effort to making it work, and I'd like the market to encourage them to find something more beneficial to do.

Me   This is true, that nanoseconds are the latency units of concern in HFT. This has been true for some time now, I think. I wrote this back in 2012, CFTC regulatory hubris but even then, 2 milliseconds was a huge savings. Have a look at this too: HFT - How to define and measure latency? "When people say they have achieved millisecond or nanosecond latency, which two points is that between?"

Adam   Fascinating articles! I work in industrial design, not finance, but I do use C++. It seems like a lot of brilliant C++ programmers are in finance, and I get recruiter emails from financial companies occasionally. The salaries are very high, so I can see why people are attracted to it, but it does seem a little sad somehow.

Me   You have a wonderful and wise perspective. I'm so happy you liked those two articles! I used to work at IBM, modeling storage product performance before I worked in finance. I'm a mathematician not a programmer though; I used APL and SAS for all my programming; I only wish I knew C++. I don't even know what object-oriented programming is. I write awful code :o) I am fascinated by HFT but also appalled by the way in which it undermines the actual intent of financial markets. It is a tech hack that should be illegal. HFT reminds me of Uber, which I believe is a regulatory hack rather than technological innovation. The allure and money of HFT, and the interest it generates is very hard to resist... no one ever gets excited about network latency outside of HFT and algorithmic trading!

Adam   Object oriented programming is just a label slapped onto a bundle of programming concepts that were all fashionable at the same time, so it's difficult to define succinctly anyway. The problem it tries to address is that one tends to write the exact same algorithms over and over again, with only minor variations, and yet it's very difficult to reuse your old code. It's wasteful. Major highlights were separating interface from implementation, reducing visibility of internal details, and "inheriting" old code into a new class to allow changes without starting over.

The shiny new thing in C++ these days is templates (aka generics). They're screaming fast (HFT guys love 'em) and they fulfill the promise of code reuse elegantly. Sadly, their syntax is a Byzantine nightmare of random punctuation that makes parsers weep for mercy. One can't have everything, I suppose.

Me   Thank you for explaining that, quite nicely! I used to write subroutines (in Pascal maybe...?) I thought of them as being analogous to modular furniture, which I would use over and over again, sometimes in new programs by copy and pasting, sometimes by calling them from older programs that I had written already. SAS has things called macros (different than the macros used in photography) that can be used to save the effort of rewriting blocks of code, although they aren't quite the same as my subroutines. I never took any real programming courses in school, so I am a perfect example of why self-instruction can be a terrible way to learn!

Anon   Your forgetting about context switches and stuff like that.... the smallest time slices on any OS I know of are 1 microsecond.

Adam   It's not that I'm ignoring context switching, it's that context switching doesn't matter. In an optimal real-time setup, the CPUs will run one thread each and never switch contexts at all. Context switching doesn't have anything to do with the rate at which instructions are executed, it just refers to how often CPUs can jump from executing one thread to executing a different one.

I did ignore multi-core systems, though. Eight cores gives you 48,000,000 instructions in 1.5ms, but they mostly aren't allowed to talk to each other (or must use best effort lock-free methods), and staying in the cache becomes even more critical.


CFTC Regulatory Hubris 


This certainly doesn't look good, as far as ensuring access by all to capital markets. Well, not unless you happen to be running a high frequency trading (HFT) business. Algos Needed to Surveill Algos, O’Malia Says,  https://www.securitiestechnologymonitor.com/news/omalia-algos-to-surveill-algos-cftc-30788-1.html
High-frequency trading accounts for the majority of trades in equity markets, which are overseen by the Securities and Exchange Commission. But automated trading now is approaching 50% of trading in futures contracts, as well.

What is the best way to implement regulatory oversight of a market driven by black boxes, dark pools and program trading? Make regulation an automated system too!
The regulation of derivatives markets, which extend from futures and options to credit default swaps, needs “totally automated systems” to oversee markets, going forward, O’Malia said.

The lowly Low Frequency Trader


One market, O’Malia said, is populated by low frequency traders that focus on “macro factors” like available supply, monetary policy and financial statements.

The low frequency trader, who is associated with less and less of all market activity, concerns himself with arcane matters such as volume, economic policy and the financial statements of the companies they invest in.

No need for Certified Public Accountants, or industry analysts who are subject matter experts in manufacturing and technology companies... what do value investors know, anyway? In contrast,
the HFT market focuses on “market microstructural factors” such as “rigidities in price adjustments across markets” and “variations in matching engines". The only way we can develop the appropriate level of surveillance is through the deployment of algorithms and automation.

Variations in matching engines is the future, well, it is for those with access to 8.5 millisecond round-trip trade execution from New York to Chicago, see "CFN Xcelor 2 millisecond time savings" Strip Down Symbols. Save Two Milliseconds Each Way. https://www.securitiestechnologymonitor.com/news/cfn-xcelor-two-millisecond-time-savings-30783-1.html Most of us can forget about the NYSE and NASDAQ, as that would be no place for the Low Frequency Trader, nor any non-HFT retail investor.

Is HFT innovative?


The 2012 Annual CFA Society Conference was held last week." Some Call It Innovation": Much of what we call "financial services innovation" is merely dealer bookmaking.

Non-financial services

Now THIS is innovative! Delta Airlines will operate its own oil refinery. Delta says it won't sell fuel from its refinery on the open market.  https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/18/refinery-operations-delta-monroe-idUSL1E8HI2Y320120618/ This link still works!

Delta Air Lines Inc, which took the bold step of bidding for a refinery to keep a handle on fuel costs, said it would not be selling jet fuel on the open market once the deal closes. "We will produce and sell the jet fuel to ourselves," said Eric Torbenson, a spokesman for the airline, the second largest in the United States. Monroe Energy, the Delta subsidiary formed to own the refinery, will sell the fuel back to Delta.

That's "out of the box" thinking! Delta Air will purchase its own refinery, and no longer need a fuel hedging trading desk, focusing instead on the core business of running an airline, and its verticals.

I worry about the farmers. The CME Group (whose Chicago Mercantile Exchange is overseen by the CFTC) serves the needs of many who are not speculators. Agricultural commodities futures, and options-on-futures, are essential for farm businesses of all sizes, as insurance against price volatility.

Big Data?

You knew it had to be squeezed in there somehow.
Expanding our surveillance to include order data will require additional hardware to store and sort a massive amount of data.
In what form though? High volume, rapid processing of transactional data is not well-suited to MapReduce and Hadoop

[1] All quoted passages are from Securities Technology Monitor "CFTC's O'Malia Says Algo's to Surveill Algo's", 18 June 2012 unless otherwise indicated.

Describe a little-known and remarkable fact about the CIA

The CIA fostered and promoted American Abstract Expressionist painting around the world for about 30 years, and was remarkably successful in doing so.[1] 

The decision to include culture and art was made when the CIA was founded in 1947.  In 1950, the International Organisations Division (IOD) of the CIA was set up. It subsidized the animated version of George Orwell's Animal Farm, sponsored American jazz artists, many opera recitals and the Boston Symphony Orchestra's international touring program.

Rebutting the idea of America as a cultural desert

During the 1950s, Senator Joe McCarthy's hysterical denunciations of the avant-garde and unorthodox were deeply embarrassing. They discredited the idea that America was a sophisticated, culturally rich democracy.

Why Abstract Expressionism?

Jackson Pollock was one of the artists whose work the CIA helped to promote. Summertime Number 9A via Art Crimes on Flickr
It was recognized that Abstract Expressionism was the kind of art that made Socialist Realism look even more stylized and more rigid and confined than it was... Moscow in those days was very vicious in its denunciation of any kind of non-conformity to its own very rigid patterns.[2]
One could accurately reason that anything the USSR criticized that much and that heavily was worth supporting.

24 May 2015

Quora monetization strategy and the surveillance state?

Read Ellie Kesselman's answer to How deeply connected is Quora to our government's intelligence agencies? on Quora

I'm going to answer this question seriously, even though it makes me laugh a little.

The context topic is "Quora Business Model and Monetization". There would be no reason for Quora to have any connection with U.S. government intelligence agencies in order to sustain itself as a viable business, i.e. a going concern.

In the somewhat implausible scenario that the U.S. government wanted to use Quora content or user data for national security purposes, or even law enforcement purposes as needed (e.g. for collecting evidence in the course of a criminal investigation), there would be no need to pay Quora. Quora is a U.S.-domiciled company, and it uses Amazon Web Services to store its data. Both Quora and AWS must comply with U.S. government requests for data. If necessary, the U.S. government could compel Quora to cooperate by a wide variety of entirely legal means.[1] 

It isn't a quid pro quo relationship. That is to say, the following scenario would NOT be a monetization or business model for Quora:

NSA/CIA/FBI:  Give us your user data and let us interact with your users as we see fit.
Quora:  Okay! How much will you pay us?
NSA/CIA/FBI:  We'll pay you $12 million dollars per year.
Quora:  Sounds good. Deposit a million dollars on the third Thursday of every month in Marc Bodnick's checking account.
NSA/CIA/FBI:  Okay!
Quora   :)
NSA/CIA/FBI    :)
 
There are some other possibilities worth considering. The question doesn't actually specify "US government", only "our government", although the topic tags do explicitly mention NSA, DHS, FBI, and CIA.

20 April 2015

What percentage of physicians have not yet transitioned to EMRs?

What percentage of physicians still use paper medical records instead of digital? Why haven't they switched?

My answer as of 2015


In 2008, 4% of U.S. physicians reported having an extensive, fully functional electronic-records system, and 13% reported having a basic system, according to the New England Journal of Medicine, see Common Examples of Healthcare IT Failure (Drexel University).

By May 2013, approximately 90% of health care facilities had implemented an electronic health record (EHR) system although only 56% of long-term care facilities had done so, see Long-term care facilities lag behind on EHR adoption.

As for physicians, CDC Releases Report on Physician EHR Adoption in 2014  indicated an EHR adoption rate of 78%. Here is some data about physicians' usage of digital records and technology via Survey shows EHR skepticism increasing among U.S. doctors published 15 April 2015.

The number of U.S. doctors who routinely use digital tools, such as secure email, for communicating with patients is 30% now versus 13% in 2012.

The five IT capabilities that U.S. doctors use the most are:
  • entering patient notes electronically (82%); 
  • prescribing drugs electronically (72%); 
  • receiving clinical results directly into a patient’s EMR (65%); 
  • using electronic administration tools (63%); 
  • sending e-order requests to labs (62%). 
I don't know the composition of the complementary data. It depends on the number of N/A or "didn't know" or "didn't respond to that question" versus "I use paper" responses.

A note about terminology


An EMR is an Electronic Medical Record. An EHR (Electronic Health Record) system consists of either EMRs or EHRs, i.e. they are used interchangeably. I don't often see "EMR systems". I'm unsure why "EHR systems" is the more common term.  Often, context is necessary to determine whether "EHR" refers to an EHR system or an EHR.
 

10 April 2015

How to increase the US prison population

How can the percentage of the population that the United States of America incarcerates be increased?

Start by using funds intended for Social Security to construct more privately-built and operated prisons. I'm certain that other New Deal programs like Medicare could be rolled back too.

Set policy goals for incarcerating more highly educated and skilled people. Prison labor costs cents on the dollar, e.g. convicts often must work for 15 cents per hour doing work that is compensated at $7 to $10 per hour at market rates. Incarcerated physicians, software engineers, electricians, and skilled tradesmen would offer remarkable savings as part of supervised work-release programs. They could also serve as domestic servants to the political elite and ruling classes! 

Alternatively, immigration status could be expanded to include indentured servitude. How to get them incarcerated? That's a more challenging problem. Impose some draconian and opaque taxes on the bond holder; if not paid properly and on time, the indentured servant is incarcerated not the owner uh bond holder. 

If there is public outcry about an increasingly totalitarian state, solve the problem by making FEMA death camps a reality for any who object.