21 October 2015

Edward Snowden, Facebook and maybe Quora but probably not

My answer to What does Edward Snowden think of Quora? on Quora. Edward Snowden might not have even heard of Quora! Most people haven't. It would be much more unlikely to not have heard of Facebook. 

Snowden's comment about Facebook doesn't reflect in any way on whether he has an opinion of Quora, or if he did, whether his opinion about Facebook would have any relevancy to what he thought of Quora. Facebook and Quora have founders in common, but little else. 

Facebook is a free service like Quora, but Facebook makes extensive use of advertising in order to generate revenue. Facebook also generates revenue through other means, using its repository of user-contributed data. In contrast, Quora does not display any (overtly) user-targeted advertising. Facebook common equity is publicly traded on listed stock exchanges following its IPO in 2012. 

Quora is a closely-held private company, with unknown revenue sources and no transparency policy. Given widespread knowledge of Facebook's business model, past privacy controversies covered in the press and its relative transparency as a public company, I am surprised that Snowden would expect Facebook to make any sort of "commitment to the user". Facebook users pay nothing to use Facebook. Instead, and this is a cliche by now yet accurate, users ARE Facebook's product! Edward Snowden said:
They need to decide who they work for: the government or the people who use their services.
Users are not Facebook's customers. Facebook works for the people and organizations who pay for its services, those who use its services free of charge. Does Facebook work for one or more governments in some capacity? 

The answer is probably yes, although payment might be quid pro quo as well as cash. Facebook primarily works for the corporations and businesses that pay for user-targeted advertising on Facebook's platform. Edward Snowden, much like Glenn Greenwald, rarely portrays corporate invasion of privacy as a concern, preferring to focus on government instead.

03 October 2015

Buy and hold

If you were allowed only to buy only 1 stock + put options for downside protection in that stock and be forced to hold it for at least 1 year from now what stock would you consider buying to achieve the best returns? 

I would never set up a trade like that with any stock. Being long put options for an entire year is crazy. In order to realize any positive return, you would need to make a profit on the stock that was greater than the premium you paid for the put option, plus any commissions and fees you incurred. US stock options expiry is monthly, so you would also have the inconvenience of remembering to roll the put option each time. 

Instead of buying put options as insurance, I would sell call options, with appropriately chosen strikes depending on the stock price each month. That is risky too, with negative upside exposure. 

If your intent is to buy and hold one stock, for an entire year, you are making a decision based on something that is driven by fundamentals of the company. Stay away from options. Buy a small cap company, of the sort that Mario Gabelli picks for his small cap growth fund (GABSX), see Mario Gabelli makes big bucks bucking trends

If you don't like that, do your research and find a company with publicly traded stock that is NOT on the Pink Sheets and has a high likelihood of growth or a massive one-time dividend (I'm thinking of Apple, just as an example) due to accounting or regulatory circumstances.