21 October 2015

Edward Snowden, Facebook, and maybe Quora

What does Edward Snowden think of Quora? Edward Snowden probably hasn't even heard of Quora! Most people haven't. It would be much more unlikely for him to not have heard of Facebook. 

Snowden's comment about Facebook doesn't reflect in any way on whether he has an opinion of Quora, or if he did, whether his opinion about Facebook would have any relevancy to what he thought of Quora. Facebook and Quora have founders (Adam D'Angelo) in common, but little else. Quora is a closely-held private company, with unknown revenue sources and no transparency policy.

Facebook is a free service like Quora, but Facebook makes extensive use of advertising in order to generate revenue. Facebook also generates revenue through other means, using its repository of user-contributed data. In contrast, Quora does not display any (overtly) user-targeted advertising. Facebook common equity is publicly traded on listed stock exchanges following its IPO in 2012. 

Given widespread knowledge of Facebook's business model, past privacy controversies covered in the press, and its relative transparency as a public company, I am surprised that Snowden would expect Facebook to make any sort of "commitment to the user". 

Facebook users pay nothing to use Facebook. Instead, and this is a cliche by now yet accurate, users ARE Facebook's product! Edward Snowden said this about Facebook:
They need to decide who they work for: the government or the people who use their services.
Users are not Facebook's customers. Facebook works for the businesses and organizations who pay for its services.


Does Facebook work for one or more governments in some capacity? 

Snowden suggests this in his comment. The answer is probably yes, although payment might be quid pro quo as well as cash. 

Facebook primarily works for the corporations and businesses that pay for user-targeted advertising on Facebook's platform. Edward Snowden, much like Glenn Greenwald, rarely portrays corporate invasion of privacy as a concern, preferring to focus on governments instead.

03 October 2015

Buy and hold and hold and hold

If you were allowed only to buy only 1 stock + put options for downside protection in that stock and be forced to hold it for at least 1 year from now what stock would you consider buying to achieve the best returns? 

I would never set up a trade like that with any stock. Being long put options for an entire year is crazy. In order to realize any positive return, you would need to make a profit on the stock that was greater than the premium you paid for the put option, plus any commissions and fees you incurred. US stock options expiry is monthly, so you would also have the inconvenience of remembering to roll over the put option, 12 times!

Instead of buying put options as insurance, I would buy stock and sell call options, with appropriately chosen strikes depending on the stock price each month. That must be followed very closely too, due to the potential negative upside exposure if neglected. 

If your intent is to buy and hold one stock, for an entire year, you are making a decision based on something that is driven by fundamentals of the company.  In that scenario, stay away from options. Buy a small cap company, of the sort that Mario Gabelli picks for his small cap growth fund (GABSX), see Mario Gabelli makes big bucks bucking trends. 

If you don't like that, do your research and find a company with publicly traded stock that is NOT on the Pink Sheets and is undervalued, or has a high likelihood of growth, or the expectation of a massive one-time dividend (I'm thinking of Apple, just as an example) due to accounting or regulatory circumstances.

27 September 2015

Is the present European Refugee Crisis comparable to flight from the Axis during WWII?

How does the present response to the European Refugee Crisis compare to the response to those fleeing Axis regimes in WWII? The comparison is of two very different situations. Think in terms of who was fleeing what.
 

Axis regimes during World War 2

Who: Well-educated, poor, middle and upper class Europeans who were fluent in one or more western languages; many were highly skilled professionals, academics or tradesmen. Many were wealthy.[1] Most were Jewish or Roman Catholic. Demographically, they were men, women, children and the elderly. 

What: Flight from the most highly developed nation in the world, Germany, then radiating outward to include flight from Italy, France, The Netherlands, Scandinavia, Poland and Eastern Europe to anywhere that would take them. Refugees gladly adopted the customs and social norms of those few countries that gave safe harbor.

02 August 2015

Are user groups dead?

User groups are not dead... yet.

Be aware that user group can refer to either online or IRL (in real life) gatherings. Erica Friedman is not optimistic about Internet user groups:

My gut feeling is that user groups are mostly old technology (Usenet, Forums) and the only people on them are the deeply dedicated/sticking to the old school ways, while the interesting conversations have moved off into newer forms of communication.

They will die out when the last Listserv server or Usenet group dies, but in the meantime they will linger on in corners of the Internet as they have for many years now.

Those are online forums, mostly consisting of Usenet and Yahoo Groups. Both Usenet and Yahoo Groups continue to exist, if not exactly thrive. Usenet user groups have a characteristic tone and format which has not changed since inception. For example, I was just reading this thread, A moderated forum: inconsistent with my Liberal principles from rec.music.classical.recordings (now hosted by Google Groups),
So you think I am those other guys. What, is your brain made of chav?
--Borscht Belt
Incongruous, isn't it? Very typical too!

19 July 2015

Do reddit users have too much power?

Does Ellen Pao's departure from reddit set a precedent that gives the reddit community too much power over the company?
 
No, it does not set a precedent that gives the reddit community too much power over the company. First, there is an implicit assumption in this question, that it was the reddit community alone who caused Ellen Pao's departure. That hasn't been established, and it is probably unknowable, other than through rumors. 

See Did Ellen Pao get fired from reddit? quoting Sam Altman saying that it was mutually agreed upon for her to depart.
According to Ellen Pao herself, she resigned. There was tremendous pressure for her to step down from the reddit userbase, including a petition that reached 200k+ signatures: Ellen K. Pao: Step down as CEO of Reddit Inc.

When I asked her directly if she was fired, Pao laughed and said, “Thanks for getting right to the point,” but again underscored that she resigned. Reddit board member and Y Combinator head Sam Altman answered more definitively about whether she was ousted: “No.”

How does the public react when political figures state that millions of illegals workers do not compete with Americans for jobs in the US?

Do people get mad when political figures tell them that a major economic trend, like millions of illegal workers competing for jobs, is not happening? 

People do not have a chance to get angry because the mainstream media refuses to report what entities such as the Federal Reserve publish, regarding the negative effects of immigration on youth employment in the United States.
 
This is the abstract of a 2012 research paper by a Federal Reserve economist, "The Impact of Low-Skilled Immigration on the Youth Labor Market" jstor.org/stable/10.1086/662073
The employment to population rate of high school–aged youth has fallen by about 20 percentage points since the late 1980s. One potential explanation is increased competition from substitutable labor, such as immigrants. I demonstrate that the increase in the population of less educated immigrants has had a considerably more negative effect on employment outcomes for native youth than for native adults. At least two factors are at work: there is greater overlap between the jobs that youth and less educated adult immigrants traditionally do, and youth labor supply appears more responsive to immigration-induced wage changes.
The actual Federal Reserve publication was released the year prior, see Smith, Christopher L. 2011. “Polarization, Immigration, Education: What’s Behind the Dramatic Decline in Youth Employment?” Federal Reserve Board of Governors Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-41.

05 July 2015

Should I work for an exotic tech startup company?

My answer to Is it worth it to work for companies that provide in-flight Wi-Fi like Gogo, OnAir, Row44, etc.?

You don't need to worry about it until you graduate with your degree. It would be a good idea to intern for one of the inflight Wi-Fi companies while you are still in school, as that should help you make a more informed decision.

If you are married and especially, if you are married and have children, you should work for an established company right out of school, as the medical benefits, compensation, and workplace stability will be better. Even if you are not married with children, you should be careful about getting your first job at a small, young company whose primary business could be derailed by regulatory issues.

It is possible that one or more of these companies developing in-flight Wi-Fi services could be bought out by Juniper, Cisco, or even a major airline.  The scenario of the airline purchase is interesting and has precedents, e.g. American Airlines purchased SABRE. Even if such an event should occur, I don't know if it would have any benefit to you as employee rather than a founder/equity owner.

Another reason to work for Juniper or Cisco for a few years, when you first graduate, is that it will increase your credibility and perceived value to future employers. Transitioning from a big company that is well-established in its industry to a start-up is easier to do than vice-versa. My first job out of school was at an innovative small company; I left after two years to work for IBM. I wish I could have done it the other way around.

03 July 2015

Why are dropouts like Elon Musk and Steve Jobs more successful than college graduates?

Why are dropouts like Elon Musk and Steve Jobs more successful than college graduates? How do they get the platform to rise?

You didn't mention Bill Gates, but he is often cited as an example of a successful college dropout. That is more myth than fact. This is what Bill Gates said about his college education at Harvard:
It is strange to call me a college drop out in all but the most literal sense. I went for three years and took enough courses to graduate...So I am kind of a failure as a drop out.

One theory that I've read about, especially in the context of the electronic payments industry, is that college drop outs have only two choices: get a low-paying job, or risk the realities of forming a new business. Necessity forces them into entrepreneurship.

01 July 2015

Is the EU's Schengen treaty unique?

Yes, there are other Schengen-type treaties around the world? Some Schengen-like treaties in the western hemisphere.

North America 


At various times, the United States and Canada have enjoyed a functional Schengen treaty arrangement, even though it was not formalized. US citizens did not require a passport or visa, nor pay any fee to travel to or from Canada. The same was true for Canadian citizens traveling to the US. This protocol was observed for automobile and passenger rail transit, although I am uncertain about air travel.
 
I was an enthusiastic novice international traveler in the 1990's. I was eager to get as many stamps in my passport, from as many different countries as possible. On a drive from Seattle to Vancouver, I had my passport with me, although it wasn't necessary. The Canadian immigration control officer was amused at my request for a stamp of entry, and eventually dug one out.

13 June 2015

Is human head transplant research unethical?

What are the ethical arguments against research in head transplants being carried out by Dr. Xiaoping Ren in China?
 
There are ethical considerations based on the objections of animal rights activists. I don't discount them, but I'm not well-versed in their terminology.

The ethical considerations as extended to humans are most obvious to me. Even if such a thing as a head transplant were possible, which is extremely unlikely given the complexity of reattaching a severed spinal cord, what are the criteria for body donors?
 
Here is the ethically challenging scenario: You have two people, 
  • one with a paralyzed body but a healthy head 
  • the other with a healthy body and a healthy head.